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GCC economies to grow 5.2pc this year: Report |
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1/19/2007 10:32:11 AM |
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dubai • Gulf economies may grow 5.2 per cent this year, spurred by public and private consumption and investment, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report.
It will be the slowest rate of growth in five years as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar cut oil production to meet Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries quotas. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil output may fall almost 2 per cent to 15.8 million barrels per day (b/d), compared with 16.1m b/d last year, HSBC said in the report initially sent to its clients on December 18.
The economy of the GCC, which also includes Oman and Bahrain, expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2006, the highest pace of growth in three years, according to the report. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy, may grow 4.5 per cent this year, its slowest rate in three. The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy, may grow 6.2 per cent, its slowest rate in five years, according to the report. “The way we see 2007 and 2008 is that net export ... is going to fall,” said the author of the report, Simon Williams, Middle East economist at HSBC. “The underlying story is still a very positive one.”
Private consumption will rise, driven by job creation and population growth, Williams said. Government investment will rise as they spend more on infrastructure. “The way in which the Gulf governments have handled the high oil revenue over the last four years has been fairly cautious and prudent,” Williams said. “We are not in a situation in which they need to think about reducing expenditure as the oil price starts to fall.” |
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