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  Dubai property market to remain lackluster: EFG
  09.18.2009
 
 
  (Reuters) - The property market in Dubai will remain weak to stable, at best, over the next 12 months, and markets in Abu Dhabi could also face some pressure from downward pricing and rental trends in Dubai, said EFG-Hermes.

"We do not anticipate any strong recovery in Dubai selling prices before the second half of 2010 at the earliest," analysts Sana Kapadia and Jad Abbas, said and revised their ratings and fair values on the UAE construction sector.

The analysts said balance sheet constraints of property companies in the UAE may put an effective cap on short-term performance until liquidity conditions improved.

In Abu Dhabi, end-user demand in the property market looks set to pick-up, due to greater availability of mortgage financing, a short-to-medium term supply-demand mismatch and a structured pace of development, the analysts said.

While the Abu Dhabi market is fundamentally strong, the knock-on effect of lower rents in Dubai could precipitate a supply-demand driven market correction, as more residents and businesses choose Dubai over Abu Dhabi, the analysts added.

The once-booming real estate market in Dubai, one of the UAE's seven emirates, has been hit particularly hard by the global financial crisis, with prices tumbling, developers cancelling projects and jobs getting slashed.

Any recovery in the country's property market would go some way toward easing investors' concerns about the health of the second-largest economy in the Gulf Arab region.

Kapadia and Abbas, however, said the sector at large had performed relatively well so far.

"The recovery from the bottom has been rational and gradual as valuations re-rated dismissing a bankruptcy scenario for some developers," they said.

The analysts said they adjusted their assumptions relating to delivery, design, pricing, volume and timing.

They cut their long-term rating on Aldar Properties ALDR.AD to "accumulate" from "buy," while they upgraded their short-term rating on Union Properties (UPRO.DU) to "neutral" from "reduce".

The analysts said Dubai's Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU remained their "top pick" in the sector and kept their short-term and long-term "buy" rating on the stock.

  Source:www.reuters.com news
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